Marta Kostyuk vs. Lyudmila Samsonova. WTA 500 Match Prediction

On the night of September 18, Marta Kostyuk (WTA No. 10) and Lyudmila Samsonova (WTA No. 50) will face off in the quarterfinals of the tournament in Guadalajara.

The match will begin no earlier than 2:00 a.m. Kyiv time.

Marta Kostyuk

This season, Marta has shown significant progress, which is only to be expected as she continues to realize her potential. It has been noted time and again that the athlete has matured mentally, while her technical skills have always been strong. On the court, Kostyuk demonstrates how high intelligence and composure can lead to outstanding results.

She won her first career 1,000-level tournament this season and came very close to reaching the Grand Slams, making it to the semifinals twice. The Ukrainian is currently in the top 10 and has a chance to play in the Year-End Championships, which would be a wonderful way to cap off this season, but the battle for a spot in the top 8 of the championship race is still ahead.

Lyudmila Samsonova

The “neutral” player is having far from her best season, with 18 wins and 21 losses to her credit. Samsonova has dropped 33 spots in the rankings since the start of the year.

The tennis player has already played two matches in Guadalajara, where she defeated French player Jacquemot in the first round, 7-6, 6-2. Her match against the little-known American Day proved particularly difficult—7–6, 2–6, 7–6. In the decisive set, Samsonova led 4–0, after which she lost five games in a row but managed to clinch the victory in a tiebreak. The athlete is capable of playing high-level tennis, but her performance at this tournament has certainly not been impressive.

Head-to-Head

In head-to-head matchups, Samsonova holds a significant advantage, leading 4–0; three of those matches were played on hard courts. Their last match took place back in 2023, and since then, the Ukrainian has significantly improved her game.

Prediction

Despite the negative head-to-head record, it is Kostyuk who is considered the favorite for the upcoming quarterfinal. The Ukrainian is having a strong season and is ranked in the top 10, while the “neutral” player isn’t looking her best.

I don’t think it will be easy for Marti, but I’ll take a chance and bet on her to win with a -3.5-game handicap at 1.6. The Ukrainian always has a special mindset when facing opponents like this.